Ep. 81: Nathan Young on forecasting, prediction markets, and designing good policy.

Watch our interview with Nathan Young on Youtube.

Nathan Young. Nathan is a corporate strategist and marketing expert who has been exceptionally active in the Effective Altruism movement, the prediction markets community, and in discussions around designing good policy.

Related

• "Ep. 53: Mauro F. Guillén on the world in 2030."
• "Ep. 46: Shermon Cruz on gamification, engaged foresight, and the methodology of futurism."
• "Ep. 24: Woody Wade, scenario planning expert, talks to us about strategic forecasting"

Questions Covered

How did Nathan get into forecasting, and what's kept him interested in it? 

• Like many others, Nathan's interest in forecasting was kindled after reading Philip Tetlock's excellent "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction". He later discovered prediction markets, and has remained interested in them both because they can be powerful tools for understanding the future and vehicles for correcting personal biases.

How do prediction markets work?

• There are two basic kinds of prediction markets: financial and reputational. In the former, you buy and sell assets which correspond to a prediction about the future. In the latter,  you simply make a prediction and, if you're right, you don't win any money but you do score social points with your peers. Turns out this is often sufficient. 

What kinds of questions are prediction markets good at solving?

• Prediction markets tend to work best when there is a clear and unambiguous resolution criteria in place, but this is often much trickier than it seems.